My HorseRaces®

Past Performance of My HorseRaces

PERFORMANCE FROM HISTORICAL DATA BASES

Results (option/parameter settings used, betting, return on turnover and bet to payout ratio) are shown here from historical data bases built up by My HorseRaces' developer in 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000. These results may help you with option selection and setting of parameter values in your own analyses.

The results reflect the options available in My HorseRaces package at the time the particular data base was being built up.

A common aim is to identify the analytical approach that puts the probabilities in the punter's favour. The returns from the historical data bases presented here underline the importance of taking different approaches with different classes of race and under different racing conditions. The playing out of probabilities in practice means that large differences in outcomes for the same class of race are expected even between horse races restricted to the same metropolitan racecourses (2008 (city), 2005, 2004 and 2000) because of the limited number of races in each data base.

As a general proposition, past performance may not be an indication of future performance but that is particularly so when the past performance is measured over a limited period covering a small number of races.

The return over a year for a particular class of race may, for example, be very high. In the following year the return could be low or even negative despite the application of the same analytical approach. Net profits over a number of years, however, might suggest that the associated analytical approach truly puts the odds in the punter's favour.

Other points relevant to the returns for 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000 are:

1. your own choices are critical to performance;
2. returns reflect the same options applied to each race in the analysis of each selected group of races;
3. when analysing each race separately, specific options, horse exclusions, past race exclusions, etc can be more tightly targeted;
4. when betting on course, odds can be accepted as they change during pre-race betting (in contrast to the TAB payouts and SP odds underlying the returns shown here);
5. place odds computed from SP win odds (as they are in My HorseRaces) may not be offered on course;
6. overall positive returns generally result from cash flow profiles that are characterised by sometimes lengthy periods of losses and large sporadic offsetting wins; and
7. there is often a trade-off involved between higher overall return on turnover and reduced number of bets or increased 'lumpiness' of wins.

With either standard multiple race analysis or optimisation, My HorseRaces allows you to analyse all the races in a data base or to restrict the analysis to particular races, as required, on the basis of class, distance, date, number of runners, track condition, racecourse and geographical 'state'. With standard multiple race analysis, you may choose to have the same set of options/parameters apply to all races selected or have different options apply to each race in the selected set. The initial options/parameters and the options/parameters being varied under optimisation must apply, however, to all races selected.

The following tables show the results of applying My HorseRaces' optimisation facility to data bases for 2008 (city), 2008 (country), 2005, 2004 and 2000. Thus, the same options shown in the tables apply to all races in each data base and to some selected groups of races.

• The options shown are variations from the same set of defaults both for basic options and for advanced options that have remained unchanged in My HorseRaces - though some parameter settings, such as class weights, age improvement scales and basis of odds computation have varied across the data bases (refer to footnotes in tables).
• The data bases before 2008 do not include some analytical options, such as 'flexible' jockey disadvantage, winning consistency measure and class weight changes for prize money/tracks.
• The class structure varies across the different data bases and, in particular, the data bases before 2008 do not include any rating based handicapping (RBH) classes which have only become a general feature of racing in Australia relatively recently.
• The data bases before 2005 do not utilise the variable kgm discounts now available for fillies/mares races and 3yo races.
• In each table:
  1. The size of each bet is the win bet required for a payout of $100 given the computed odds - unless the use of market odds is indicated.
  2. The 'Return on turnover' is (value of all payouts - value of all bets)/value of all bets x 100%.
  3. 'Pays/Bets' is total number of payouts to total number of bets. A low payouts/bets ratio (say significantly less than 10%) may suggest that the return on turnover is driven by a small number of high paying wins.

1. Variations from default options, which include weight rating only analysis, are shown in 'Analysis options' column.
2. Class weights have been re-optimised.
3. All options include default reduced class weights for races restricted to fillies/mares (other than for quality and open listed F&M races which have their own class weights): 0kg reduction for 2yo races; 2kg reduction for 3yo races; and 3kg reduction for non-2yo/3yo races, including RBH races. These discounts are the same as 2008 country horse races and 2005 horse races except for RBH classes.
4. The schedule forming the basis of odds computation has been re-optimised.
5. The negative return on turnover for distance races and the 106% return for F&M sprint races illustrate the large variation in returns that can occur from year to year when relatively small numbers of races are involved.

The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files (New Form files and accepting form on any racecourse) arbitrarily selected and downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Information Services Australia Pty Ltd (RISA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.

Of the 158 races:

6 are distance races (> 1900m), 1 of which was on a wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy'); and

152 are sprint races (< 2000m), 16 of which are on wet tracks.

Of the 152 sprint races:

5 are 2yo races (all on dry tracks);

3 are 3yo races (1 on a wet track);

54 are races for horses 3yo and above with no metropolitan wins, including maiden races (7 on wet tracks);

15 are for horses 3yo and above with no other restrictions (1 on a wet track);

75 are ratings based handicapping (RBH) class races (7 on wet tracks) - comprising 9 RB57 races, 28 RB62, 17 RB67, 11 RB72, 2 RB76 and 8 RB77.

Notes to table:

1. Variations from default options, which include weight rating only analysis, are shown in 'Analysis options' column.
2. All options include default reduced class weights for races restricted to fillies/mares other than quality (group) and open listed F&M races which have their own class weights: 0kg reduction for 2yo races; 2kg reduction for 3yo races; and 3kg reduction for non-2yo/3yo races, except RBH races which attract a 2kg reduction.
3. The higher end of the optimised class weight range for 2YO R0 class (range 35-50kg) is higher than that for the 2YO NR class (range 35-44kg) perhaps reflecting a broad range of 2yo horses entering country maiden races.
4. Age improvement ranges (2yo, 3yo and 4yo horses) are the same as for 2008 city horse races.
5. The schedule forming the basis of odds computation is the same as for 2004 horse races.
6. Class weights have been re-optimised. Class weights of races restricted to fillies/mares - other than quality (group) and open listed F&M races - are determined via specified reductions in the class weights of the associated general class as with 2005 horse races except for the inclusion of RBH classes.

The pre-race data were uploaded electronically by My HorseRaces from race files arbitrarily selected and downloaded by the developer from the website of Racing Information Services Australia Pty Ltd (RISA). Race results, SP odds, TAB payouts and race-day changes to jockeys, weight carried, etc were typed in by the developer.

Of the 734 races:

105 are distance races (> 1900m), 19 of which are on wet tracks ('slow' or 'heavy'); and

629 are sprint races (< 2000m), 98 of which are on wet tracks.

Of the 629 sprint races:

68 are 2yo races (14 on wet tracks);

149 are 3yo races (29 on wet tracks);

56 are fillies/mares open group and listed races (12 on wet tracks);

154 are C3 to C6 races (13 on wet tracks) - broadly, for horses with corresponding number of wins;

55 are for horses 3yo and above or 4yo and above and restricted to those with 0, 1 or 2 metropolitan wins (5 on wet tracks);

75 are races for horses 3yo and above or 4yo and above and with no other restrictions (13 on wet tracks);

23 are welters (5 on wet tracks) - open to all horses in transition to open sprint and open quality races; and

49 are open sprint and open quality races (7 on wet tracks).

Notes to table:

1. Variations from default options, which include weight rating only analysis, are shown in 'Analysis options' column.
2. Class weights were re-optimised.
3. All options include default reduced class weights for races restricted to fillies/mares other than for quality (group) and open listed F&M races which have their own class weights: 0kg reduction for 2yo races; 2kg reduction for 3yo races and 3kg reduction for non-2yo/3yo races (other than quality and open listed F&M races).
4. Age improvement ranges (2yo, 3yo and 4yo horses) are the same as for 2008 city horse races and 2008 country horse races.
5. The schedule forming the basis of odds computation is the same as for 2004 horse races.

1. Variations from default options, which include weight rating only analysis, are shown in 'Analysis options' column.
2. Race classes are the same and associated class weights (and levels) are virtually the same as for 2004 horse races.
3. Age improvement ranges (2yo, 3yo and 4yo horses) are the same as for 2004 horse races.
4. The schedule forming the basis of odds computation is the same as for 2004 horse races.